Did Canadians use cannabis in greater quantities, at a younger age and more often as the drug became more affordable and accessible? “The answer is mostly no.”
Michael J. Armstrong Brock University, via The Conversation
Researchers have studied the impact of legalizing recreational marijuana in Canada since 2018.
As an example, it has been reported that some medical cannabis patients have immediately stopped using the system and switched to other products. In contrast, the legalization of alcohol in Canada did not seem to impact sales.
Cannabis retail has also evolved significantly since cannabis was legalized.
Retailers experienced product shortages in the first six-months of legalization, but expanded steadily afterward. Canada increased its number of stores from 210 in April 2019 up to 3500 by April 2023. Due to the competition, prices fell by 28 percent.
Various regulatory measures have been tried by provincial governments. Initially, some provinces restricted the number stores in order to not tempt non-users. Québec still has 10 times fewer stores per capita than Ontario does as a result. Some provinces set minimum prices in order to prevent people from eating too much. Ontario for instance, will not allow wholesale prices below $2.28/gram.
This new research arose from the changes I observed in both business and government policies. To understand the impact of retail expansion on cannabis usage, I conducted my latest research. In order to do so, I analysed consumer responses from government surveys conducted between 2019 and 2023. These responses were compared to the cannabis recreational consumer price index, and then the number of retail stores that are licensed in every province.
Canadiens consumed cannabis in greater quantities, at a younger age and more often as the drug became more affordable and accessible? Answer: Mostly no.
Women and older adults are now the largest consumers
The percentage of men who used cannabis stayed around 28 percent between 2019 and 2023—despite retailers’ massive store growth and notable price cuts.
But usage did grow slightly among women—rising from 21 percent in 2019 to 23 percent in 2023. This growth is attributed to increasing cannabis affordability, and not convenience in retail. Women consumed more cannabis as prices dropped, and not because there were more stores.
The difference between older and younger adults was also striking. The cannabis use rate among Canadians 25 years and older increased from 21% to 23%. This increase was again attributed to lower prices, rather than an expansion of stores. The usage rate among 16-24 year olds fluctuated from one year to the next, but was around 46 percent.
In 2023, the average age for first time use will rise from 19,2 years in 2019. It was also found that this finding seemed to be correlated both with falling prices and the expansion of store locations.
The same frequency but more tasty
The frequency of cannabis use remained relatively unchanged. In both 2019 and 20,23, about one quarter of cannabis users used the drug five days or more per week.
The product choices of consumers have changed. As a result, the number of people who smoke dried cannabis has decreased and those who consume edibles have increased. Some consumers used both types of products, or used other products entirely—such as vapes. Prices and retail outlets seemed to be the main factors behind both changes. As prices dropped, consumers appeared to switch from dried cannabis to edibles.
The overall retail growth in Canada was modest.
There could be some coincidence in the relationship between prices and use. Also, the quality of product and its selection improved. These factors likely also contributed. Falling prices are a possible explanation, but they do not seem to explain the increase in cannabis consumption.
This lack of correlation between store and usage may seem shocking. Canada has experienced an explosion of 16 times more stores from 2019 to 2023. This finding is in line with my earlier research, which showed that there was no correlation between the retail expansion of marijuana stores between 2018 and 2021.
Retail stores may have a greater effect on existing customers than on attracting new ones.
I think retailers may have influenced the use of cannabis in their own neighborhoods. A person who passes a brand new shop every morning on his way to the office might be influenced to buy cannabis. However, this impact would not have appeared in the province-level measures.
Discounts are available on certain products
The results of my research suggest some lessons that regulators can learn.
It’s not necessary to restrict their number if the impact of opening new stores is minimal. There’s no need for provinces to restrict store licensing, nor do municipalities like Markham and Oakville (in Ontario) need to ban these stores.
It is important that policymakers prevent the prices from falling too low, as this will attract more customers.
These points may also be of interest to other countries that are looking at legalizing marijuana.
In Australia for example, the use of medical cannabis is on a rapid rise, just as it was in Canada 10 years ago. In the next federal election, Australia’s Green Party will be campaigning in favor of recreational legalization. Legalization could be on the agenda if this election results in a coalition. Our policies could be analyzed and improved.
A previous German government had legalized the recreational use of marijuana, but prohibited sales. Germans can either grow their plants themselves or they can join clubs that do. Only medical cannabis products can be purchased in Germany. There is no surprise that the medical cannabis system in Canada has exploded. My research indicates that Germany’s medical use will grow whether or not it has stores. Allowing stores, however, would allow consumers to buy their products from authorized sources rather than illicit sellers.
The legalization of cannabis in Canada at that time was controversial. But for some Canadians, it’s become an important part of Justin Trudeau’s legacy. It’s a question he can and will discuss with his biographers now that he is no longer the prime minister.
Michael J. Armstrong, associate professor at Brock University in the department of Operations Research.
The Conversation has licensed this article for republishing under Creative Commons. The original article can be read.
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