Marijuana advocates and business have become fond of using the phrases “the toothpaste has come out of tube” and “the genie is now out of bottle,” to describe the worldwide explosion of cannabis, which is now present on every continent.
Which makes it that much harder to remember – even when faced with stark political realities – that reform is not inevitable. Instead, reform must be fought and won.
That simple truth has perhaps never been more prescient than right now, heading into a second Donald Trump administration – with top federal law enforcement officials that are either openly hostile towards marijuana reform, or simply agnostic – and it’s underscored by a renewed attempt by cannabis prohibitionists at the state level who continue trying to roll back the gains made by the legalization movement.
Virginia’s recreational marijuana industry has been in a rut for many years because of Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s opposition to legalization – with a renewed veto threat issued by his office this month in response to a Democratic attempt to get the market operational.
Colorado opponents of marijuana have submitted a measure to rollback the state’s Social Equity Program, ban adults under 26 years from purchasing cannabis products, as well as add additional warning label requirements. Senate Bill 76 would prevent Colorado’s newly formed psychedelics business from selling edibles or psilocybin-based extracts.
Add to this, ballot initiatives in Arkansas and Florida to expand the medical or recreational cannabis industry failed at the November polls. Nebraska was the only state to legalize medical marijuana in November. However, two ballot measures to establish a program have been sued by a former senator. It is unclear when and if this new industry will be established.
There are also the numerous legal disputes that take place in various states of the United States over hemp-based intoxicants. Some states have banned such products, and others are considering similar measures. It has led hemp businesses to fight in court, saying that their products comply with the Farm Bill 2018, which legalized the hemp plant nationwide. They argue they have the ability to ship between states, giving a big advantage to the marijuana-siloed markets.
All of these are obstacles that are preventing progress. This is despite the fact that investors have largely left the sector in the last few years. Many operators are now struggling to make ends meet, even though they’ve won licenses.
It’s important to note that this does not mean reform is completely dead. Many insiders remain optimistic, predicting the opening of new medical markets and markets for pharmaceuticals in Kentucky and Alabama as well as the continued growth in some of the newer markets such as New York.
The hope that federal marijuana would be rescheduled in the last few years to lead at least to tax savings through reclassification is now beginning to fade, especially with the new anti-cannabis positions of key Trump appointees like incoming Attorney general Pam Bondi, and acting Drug Enforcement Administration Chief Derek Maltz. The future of rescheduling is still unclear, but it’s unlikely to happen before at least three more months.
As Trump and the GOP have never prioritized marijuana reform, the SAFE Banking Act as well as other cannabis legislation that has been shelved by Congress is probably also true.
What does this mean for industry? The industry is still in the dark.
The state and local politics has been the main vehicle of change in cannabis policy over the past 30 years. This is true even though the California Proposition 215 was approved by voters there back in 1996. This is probably where the cannabis industry can find some relief or, at least, enough support to keep it going for many more years, until federal legalization happens.